Natural Rationality | decision-making in the economy of nature
Showing posts with label politics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label politics. Show all posts

5/21/08

Voting and low-information rationality

In this year of American Presidential election, I noticed that many political analyst referred a book by political scientist Samuel L Popkin, The Reasoning Voter. One of his point is that voters are not completely irrational, but rather behave as decision-makers under certainty. They use "low-information signals" such as appearances, character traits or "whether you know how to roll a bowling ball or wear an American-flag pin" (from Time's Joe Klein column). In other words, political heuristics.



Here is a more detailed summary from Wikisummary.

Low information rationality

Popkin's analysis is based on one main premise: voters use low information rationality gained in their daily lives, through the media and through personal interactions, to evaluate candidates and facilitate electoral choices.

Political "Knowledge": Despite a more educated electorate, knowledge of civics has not increased significantly in forty years. According to Popkin, theorists who argue that political competence could be measured by knowledge of "civics book" knowledge and names of specific bills (i.e. the Michigan studies) have missed the larger point that voters do manage to gain an understanding of where candidates stand on important issues. He argues that education has not changed how people think, but it does allow us to better interpret and connect different cues.

Information as a By-Product: Popkin argues that most of the information voters learn about politics is picked up as a by-product of activities they pursue as a part of daily life (homeowners learn about interest rates, shoppers learn about prices and inflation etc.--thus, people know how the economy is doing). Media helps to explain what politicians are doing and the relevance of those actions for individuals, and campaigns help to clarify the issues. Voters develop affinity towards like-minded opinion leaders in media and in personal interactions.

Media and Friends: Interpersonal communication is seen as a way of developing assessments of parties and candidates. Information received from the media is discussed with friends and helps to create opinions. While voters do care about issue proximity, they also focus on candidate competency and sincerity and rely heavily on cues to make these evaluations.


Other related post:

A Neuropolitic look at political psychology





1/23/08

Political animals and indirect speech

Two great papers:

  • Political Animals (NYT), on animal politics
  • The logic of indirect speech by Pinker, Nowak and Lee (cognitive linguistics meet evolutionary game theory !). They propose a "three-part theory of indirect speech, based on the idea that human communication involves a mixture of cooperation and conflict".



9/25/07

My brain has a politics of its own: neuropolitic musing on values and signal detection

Political psychology (just as politicians and voters) identifies two species of political values: left/right, or liberalism/conservatism. Reviewing many studies, Thornhill & Fincher (2007) summarizes the cognitive style of both ideologies:

Liberals tend to be: against, skeptical of, or cynical about familiar and traditional ideology; open to new experiences; individualistic and uncompromising, pursuing a place in the world on personal terms; private; disobedient, even rebellious rulebreakers; sensation seekers and pleasure seekers, including in the frequency and diversity of sexual experiences; socially and economically egalitarian; and risk prone; furthermore, they value diversity, imagination, intellectualism, logic, and scientific progress. Conservatives exhibit the reverse in all these domains. Moreover, the felt need for order, structure, closure, family and national security, salvation, sexual restraint, and self-control, in general, as well as the effort devoted to avoidance of change, novelty, unpredictability, ambiguity, and complexity, is a well-established characteristic of conservatives. (Thornhill & Fincher, 2007).
In their paper, Thornhill & Fincher presents an evolutionary hypothesis for explaining the liberalism/conservatism ideologies: both originate from innate adaptation to attachement, parametrized by early childhood experiences. In another but related domain Lakoff (2002) argued that liberals and conservatives differs in their methaphors: both view the nation or the State as a child, but they hold different perspectives on how to raise her: the Strict Father model (conservatives) or the Nurturant Parent model (liberals); see an extensive description here). The first one

posits a traditional nuclear family, with the father having primary responsibility for supporting and protecting the family as well as the authority to set overall policy, to set strict rules for the behavior of children, and to enforce the rules [where] [s]elf-discipline, self-reliance, and respect for legitimate authority are the crucial things that children must learn.


while in the second:

Love, empathy, and nurturance are primary, and children become responsible, self-disciplined and self-reliant through being cared for, respected, and caring for others, both in their family and in their community.
In the October issue of Nature Neuroscience, a new research paper by Amodio et al. study the "neurocognitive correlates of liberalism and conservatism". The study is more modest than the title suggests. Subject were submitted to the same test, a Go/No Go task (click when you see a "W" don't click when it's a "M"). The experimenters then trained the subjects to be used to the Go stimuli; on a few occasions, they were presented with the No Go stimuli. Since they got used to the Go stimuli, the presentation of a No Go creates a cognitive conflict: balancing the fast/automatic/ vs. the slow/deliberative processing. You have to inhibit an habit in order to focus on the goal when the habit goes in the wrong direction. The idea was to study the correlation between political values and conflict monitoring. The latter is partly mediated by the anterior cingulate cortex, a brain area widely studied in neuroeconomics and decision neuroscience (see this post). EEG recording indicated that liberals' neural response to conflict were stronger when response inhibition was required. Hence liberalism is associated to a greater sensibility to response conflict, while conservatism is associated with a greater persistence in the habitual pattern. These results, say the authors, are

consistent with the view that political orientation, in part, reflects individual differences in the functioning of a general mechanism related to cognitive control and self-regulation
Thus valuing tradition vs. novelty, security vs. novelty might have sensorimotor counterpart, or symptoms. Of course, it does not mean that the neural basis of conservatism is identified, or the "liberal area", etc, but this study suggest how micro-tasks may help to elucidate, as the authors say in the closing sentence, "how abstract, seemingly ineffable constructs, such as ideology, are reflected in the human brain."

What this study--together with other data on conservatives and liberal--might justify is the following hypothesis: what if conservatives and liberals are natural kinds? That is, "homeostatic property clusters", (see Boyd 1991, 1999), categories of "things" formed by nature (like water, mammals, etc.), not by definition? (like supralunar objects, non-cat, grue emerald, etc.) Things that share surface properties (political beliefs and behavior) whose co-occurence can be explained by underlying mechanims (neural processing of conflict monitoring)? Maybe our evolution, as social animals, required the interplay of tradition-oriented and novelty-oriented individuals, risk-prone and risk-averse agents. But why, in the first place, evolution did not select one type over another? Here is another completely armchair hypothesis: in order to distribute, in the social body, the signal detection problem.

What kind of errors would you rather do: a false positive (you identify a signal but it's only noise) or a false negative (you think it's noise but it's a signal)? A miss or a false alarm? That is the kind of problems modeled by signal detection theory (SDT): since there is always some noise and you try to detect signal, you cannot know in advance, under radical uncertainty, what kind of policy you should stick to (risk-averse or risk-prone. "Signal" and "noise" are generic information-theoretic terms that may be related to any situation where an agent tries to find if a stimuli is present:




Is is rather ironic that signal detection theorists employ the term liberal* and conservative* (the "*" means that I am talking of SDT, not politics) to refer to different biases or criterions in signal detection. A liberal* bias is more likely to set off a positive response ( increasing the probability of false positive), whereas a conservative* bias is more likely to set off a negative response (increasing the probability of false negative). The big problem in life is that in certain domains conservatism* pay, while in others it's liberalism* who does (see Proust 2006): when identifying danger, a false negative is more expensive (better safe than sorry) whereas in looking for food a false positive can be more expensive better (better satiated than exhausted). So a robust criterion is not adaptive; but how to adjust the criterion properly? If you are an individual agent, you must altern between liberal* and conservative* criterion based on your knowledge. But if you are part of a group, liberal* and conservative* biases may be distributed: certains individuals might be more liberals* (let's send them to stand and keep watch) and other more conservatives* (let's send them foraging). Collectively, it could be a good solution (if it is enforced by norms of cooperation) to perpetual uncertainty and danger. So if our species evolved with a distribution of signal detection criterions, then we should have evolved different cognitive styles and personality traits that deal differently with uncertainty: those who favor habits, traditions, security, and the others. If liberal* and conservative* criterions are applied to other domains such as family (an institution that existed before the State), you may end up with the Strict Father model and the Nurturant Parent model; when these models are applied to political decision-making, you may end up with liberals/conservatives (no "*"). That would give a new meaning to the idea that we are, by nature, political animals.


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3/28/07

A Neuropolitic look at political psychology

In Politics on the Brain: An fMRI Investigation, (a paper forthcoming in Social Neuroscience) Knutson et al. shows that political preferences (whether you prefer George Bush or Hilary Clinton) recruits 2 different neural circuits: one rapid, stereotypic, and emotional - ventromedial PFC and amygdala- and the other more deliberative - anterior prefrontal activations. When subjects were shown a image of a politician faces, both systems fire. Thus it seems that liking/disliking a politician is an affective reaction modulated by other knowledge, probably political values. The strength of affiliation with a party (in this case, Democrat vs. Republican) correlated negatively with PFC activation: thus emotional markers are not principally signs of political orientation, but signs of personal affiliation. Political orientation may modulate personal orientation when, for instance, one agree with a party without endorsing its leader's opinions. Somewhere in Man's Fate, Andre Malraux wrote (I quote approximatively, I cannot find the original quote): "men that follows ideas, in the end, always follows individuals". Most of our cognition is affective, and most of our affections are social. This is why you will always see politician shaking hands, kissing babies and smiling: they recruit brain structures involved in social-affective cognition. Political education, then, should consist in learning how to override these emotional reaction, and thus research on emotional learning are important for democracy.
Another related study might be of interest for neuropolitics int he last edition of Social Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience. An article on the neural mechanisms of social fear transmission concludes that learned fear can be "as powerful as fears originating from direct experiences." Thus emotional education (a form of emotional learning) can induce genuine emotions - at least fear.
Together, these studies suggest that "affective political cognition" could be not only theoretically interesting, but highly important for policy making.